1.2 In a Perfect World: Experimental Probability

TODAY'S AGENDA: We are learning experimental probability and its applications in real world.  
1) Read the Garfield example below.
2) (Optional) Do the experiment on "Want proof?" section.
3) Play "The wheel of food" game and keep your tall on the screen or on your notebook.
4) Complete pages 10, 11, 12, and 13. You can find several simulators at the bottom of the page.
HEADS         TAILS           TAILS         HEADS           TAILS         TAILS           HEADS         TAILS           TAILS         HEADS
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY: Chance of something happening based on experimental results. If you toss a coin 10 times, you might get 4 heads and 6 tails. The experimental probability of heads would be 6/10 or 60%.

SECTION A


How do I figure out the experimental probability?

Theroetical Probability
From this wheel, Garfield will either land sleep or eat. The theoretical probability of each of them is 50% because there are only two options: sleep or eat. 

Experimental Probability
Experimental probability is a little bit different. Say, Garfield spins the wheel 10 times and gets 4 sleep and 6 eat.  
This time, the probability is 40% for sleeping and 60% for eating.
IMPORTANT: If Garfield spins it enough times, the probability will always average out to be 50% for each.
By setting a spinner with 2 sectors, we can simulate Garfield's wheel as it is shown below. When we spin it enough times, the bars average out to be the same height.

Wanna try?

Instructions:
1) Click Clear to delete default spinners.
2) Set the number of sectors to 2 then click New spinner.
3) Run it 10, 100, 50000 times until the experimental probability averages out to 50:50
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SECTION B


WHEEL of DINNER: What do we eat?

Your family cannot decide on what to eat tonight. After learning probability concept in class, you design a game for them. As a family you agree on spinning the wheel 24 times and whichever food lands the most will be the winner for tonight. On your wheel, you have 5 burger, 4 pizza and 3 steak slices. 

I think will be the winner.

   spin me 24 times

TALLY

* enter I for each one

Experimental

Probability

Theoretical

Probability
 
BURGER:             /24 = %        /12 = %

PIZZA:                  /24 = %        /12= %

STEAK:                /24 = %       /12= %

Name:
 

Simulations for the activities in the textbook